To Avoid Nuclear War in 2030 in Framing the Debate

  • July 25, 2015, 12:26 a.m.
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 It is about 67 kilometers (to use a quaint measure of distance) from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. It is difficult to imagine that devout Muslims would put the city of Jerusalem in harm’s way through the use of thermonuclear devices directed at Tel Aviv.  However, in 10 years or less, and thanks to the incompetence of John Kerry and the perfidy of Barack Obama, Iran will have nuclear weapons.
 There was a time when the United States had a military presence on either side of Iran, in Iraq and in Afghanistan. That made it much easier to keep the holy men of Iran in check. Now, that advantage is gone ... pissed away through the treachery of Obama. 
 Israel fears for the lives of the 6 million Jews who live there.  Saudi Arabia fears for the lives of the roughly 24 million Sunni Muslims who live over at their place. The holy men of Iran are Shiite, and have it in for the Sunni, almost as much as they have it in for the Jews. 
 Unimpeded, the value of Iranian oil could reach $250 billion in 2015.  It is this stream of revenue that funds the Iranian nuclear program.  It is in that stream of revenue that Iran is at its most vulnerable.  Saudi production exceeds 10 million barrels per day (bpd), and, at somewhere north of $63 per barrel (for Brent crude), the yearly total exceeds $230 billion.
 The Saudi ruling family paid for one half of the cost for the C.I.A. to wage war against the Soviet occupying force in Afghanistan, and to send the Russian Army troops packing … including far too many good Russian men sent home in sealed coffins.  American troops eventually filled the vacuum.  We did not go in to Iraq to be mean to Saddam Hussein, nor into Afghanistan to destroy the poppy fields.  We went there to contain the crazies in Iran.
 Now the crazies will have The Bomb.  Iran possesses (probably with thanks either to Russia or North Korea, long range ballistic missiles.  There will be an attack, on the part of Iran, on some target in Israel.  A nuclear warhead will be sent in anger (or lunacy).  What could effectively prevent its detonation would be advanced technology, developed by Israeli defense industries (and no longer shared with the United States).  Better to act now than to wait 8 to 10 years for another potential holocaust.  What are the options for Israel and for Saudi Arabia?
 For the Saudis, there is a distinct advantage in removing the Iranian oil production capability.  For one thing, that decreases the competitive pressure on the price of oil, which has been substantial of late, what with fracking and all.  To have free strategic access to oil fields, for purposes of incapacitating them, it would be useful to destroy all air defense systems.  Lacking cooperation from the American Armed forces, crippled as they may be by the dictates of Obama, the old ally of the Saudis, the C.I.A., may have a trick or two up its sleeve.  
 Iran has sought cooperation with the Russian government in an agreement to “agreement to intensify military and technological cooperation”.  . http://www.haaretz.com/news/world/1.638028  Iranian officials may have been unaware that the Russian government may have had strong views regarding Muslims after to problems that they had had in Georgia.

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